Quarterbacking

The news that Andrew Luck is returing to Stanford, forgoing the chance to become this year's #1 pick in the draft, was surprising, but by no means shocking to me. He would be heading into a pretty horrendous situation in Carolina, with no head coach, an owner that doesn't want to spend a whole lot of money, limited skill players, and just not too bright of a future. He couldn't do much worse than the Panthers, so going back to school for another year. Plus, if he really is as good as everyone says he is, it won't matter if he gets hurt. He'll still be the #1 pick a year from now.

This whole situation raises a different discussion, about quarterbacks and the situations they are drafted into. It's tough to argue that a team can be successful in today's NFL without an elite quarterback, so success is about finding the quarterback that can help deliver that success to your franchise.

It depends on whether the QB was drafted with the intention to start right away, learn a few years under the tutelage of a veteran, or is thrust into duty after the season has been lost. And that is just for QBs and the team that drafts them. On rare occasions, a team can bring in a quarterback via free agency or trade and find great success. But more times than not, great teams find their QBs in the draft.

Let's look at this years playoff teams and how their QB situations came about:

AFC

1. New England - Football fans should be familiar with the Tom Brady situation, and this is an extremely unlikely scenario all things considered. A 6th round pick in 2000, he only found the playing field after Drew Bledsoe went down. The Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl in 2001, and so on and so forth. He probably would have gotten his chance eventually, but the way he seized the job and never let go is really the sign of an elite QB.

2. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger had quite the story, going 13-0 in his rookie year and winning ROY, but he started the season third on the depth chart behind Chuck Batch and Tommy Maddox. Some fortuitous injuries for Big Ben allowed him to start, and 2 Super Bowls later, he's still hitting on girls in line for the bathroom at seedy night clubs.

3. Kansas City - Another pretty crazy story for Matt Cassel. Drafted in the 7th round out of USC, he backed up 2 Heisman Trophy winnners (Palmer, Leinart) and then sat behind Tom Brady. He got his chance in NE when Brady's knee was blown out, and then flipped success that season into a long-term deal with KC. If it wasn't Brady, he might have kept his job, but he essentially moved to NE West, with Pioli, Weis and Crennel in Kansas City.

4. Indianapolis - Peyton Manning - Drafted #1, started from day one, hasn't missed a game since. The gold standard for any #1 pick.

5. Baltimore - Took a chance on Joe Flacco later in the first round, and have been in the playoffs in each of his (and John Harbaugh's) first three seasons. Fought for the job from day one, won it over Kyle Boller and Troy Smith, as he probably should have. The risk was a relative unknown guy with a big arm from a small school, but it's panned out so far for the Ravens.

6. New York Jets - Mark Sanchez was a sexy first round pick from a big school coming to a big town with a big coach and big expectations. So far, he has delivered. AFC championship game in year 1, playoffs again in year 2.

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan was drafted #3 overall, with the idea that he was going to be the new face of the franchise after all that had happened with Michael Vick. Started from day one, led the Falcons to the playoffs. Slightest of regressions in year 2, before a breakout season this year. Has Hotlanta atop the NFC standings, and could make the leap to the elitest elite level with a Super Bowl run.

2. Chicago - Conned Denver into giving up Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton and some picks. Up and down success for the Bears, capped off with a first-round bye this year. Was a first round pick with high expectations, and is just starting to fulfill those - with a different team.

3. Philadelphia - I give Andy Reid all the credit in the world for getting rid of Donovan McNabb and signing Michael Vick, but even this isn't how he thought the situation was going to turn out. This was supposed to be the year of Kevin Kolb, the later round pick that was the rationale for getting rid of McNabb. Kolb met his Claymaker, and Vick got his chance, and really hasn't let go.

4. Seattle - Not really a playoff team, and they have the QB situation befitting a struggling team. Aging veteran that has been established in Seattle, with a flyer as a backup. Neither Hasselbeck nor Charlie Whitehurst started their careers with the Seahawks, and IMO, they will never be an elite team with either behind center.

5. New Orleans - After years of Aaron Brooks, Billy Joe Tolliver and Shane Falco as QBs for the Saints, they decided to make a move for Drew Brees. It didn't pan out into immediate success, missing the playoffs two out of three years before last year's title run. When he and Sean Payton really began to gel is when the Saints took off.

6. Green Bay - All the credit in the world to Ted Thompson for drafting Aaron Rodgers when the Packers were not in immediate need, and then sticking with him when he though Favre was done. It's worked so far in GB, albeit without the postseason success the Cheesehead faithful may have hoped for, but all signs point to that tide turning over the next few years.

Other positive -looking situations around the league

St. Louis - Sam Bradford will have the Rams winning the NFC West on a regular basis.
Detroit - If Matt Stafford can stay healthy, the Lions are potent.
San Diego - Philip Rivers is legit, SD just needs some special teams.
NYGiants - One Super Bowl already, so Eli is there to stay.
Denver - Jesus H. Tebow showing promise.
Tampa Bay - Josh Freeman is the real deal. 10 wins this year should be the standard.

Terrible Situations

Minnesota - Favre's done, TJax can't stay healthy, and I doubt anyone thinks Joe Webb is the long term answer.
Washington - The McNabb experiment clearly didn't work.
Cincy - Palmer puts up stats, but the team can't win.
Carolina - Clausen isn't cutting it, and they lose out on Luck.
San Fran - The Alex Smith era looks awful compared to what A-Rodge is doing in Green Bay
Dolphins - Henne not the answer.
Buffalo - Hooray for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but can he lead you to the playoffs in the AFC east?
Titans - VY is gone, and Kerry Collins ain't getting any younger.
Cardinals - John Skelton?


Decent Situations

Jacksonville - Garrard shows promise, but isn't a Super Bowl QB
Houston - See above for Jax, but with Schaub.
Oakland - Good team, Jason Campbell shows flashes, but again, see above.