Monday, April 26, 2010

Better without Bogut?

So sports are all the buzz in Wisconsin right now, and little to none of the talk is about the Green Bay Packers or the Wisconsin Badgers. It's the Brewers, like the past couple years, but it's shocking to hear people talking about the Bucks. I guess that's what happens when you have a catchy (and awesome) catch phrase. But I'm on board. I Fear the Dear.

Since going 10-4 in February and 11-4 in March, the city of Milwaukee and the state of Wisconsin have been boarding the Milwaukee Bucks bandwagon. When Bogut went down April 3rd, I'll admit, I thought the dream had died. But with two victories in the playoffs in front of an absolutely rockin' Bradley Center crown, the Bucks have proved that their hot stretch in the season was no fluke.

Sure, they face an uphill climb for the rest of the playoffs, having to win at least one game in Atlanta to win the series. However, I like Milwaukee's chances. I think we're actually better in this series without Bogut. (I love Bogut. I wish he was playing. But let me explain.) Post play wouldn't be effective against the Hawks in these playoffs. In 2 games versus the Hawks this season, Bogut scored 14 and 9, respectively, while the team was carried by John Salmons in both games. The same goes for the playoffs here. Kurt Thomas isn't looking to score, instead looking to set vicious screens to open up the perimeter for Jennings, Delfino, Ridnour, and Salmons.

I'm not saying I wouldn't play Bogut if he was healthy. You can't do that to such a big contributor like Andrew. But with Kurt Thomas seeing more minutes, the floor is spread out more. Instead of working the ball into the post and then dealing with Al Horford's defense and Josh Smith coming across the lane for a weakside block, the Bucks can work on swinging the ball around for a good shot. If a three isn't open, the guards can penetrate to the spots that Josh Smith isn't. Brandon Jennings worked this to perfection in game 4, one of the big reasons the Bucks one. And Bogut's defense isn't so amazing that Thomas can't replace it, as he can defend Horford just fine. The Hawks are too athletic to look to post up too much, anyway.


Do the Bucks stand a chance in the next rounds, were we to advance? Eh, maybe. The Celtics may be a decent matchup on paper, but we don't have the experience they do. We also don't have an answer for Dwight Howard (or Rashard Lewis) if we were to run into the Magic. And I don't see anyone taking down LeBron this year. I think the Bucks are a great story in round one, but after that, I get a little more skeptical.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Move over Mel...Here's My Mock Draft

For the first time, the NFL Draft is going to be broadcast in primetime, beginning Thursday night on ESPN. For one, I think this is a great idea. Not only are there more days of a great NFL event, but it gives teams almost a whole extra day to wheel and deal, which is what I'm most excited to see. Players like Marshawn Lynch and LenDale White are two of the many players rumored to be moving, and with extra time this year, don't be surprised to find antsy GM pulling the trigger on a number of moves before the start of round 2.

As it is way too tough to predict trades that might happen, here's a mock draft with the teams sitting in their current picks. While the Browns may "mortgage the ranch" to move up to the number one overall pick, I don't think that Mike Holmgren and Co. see Sam Bradford as enough above Jimmy Clausen to make that move, when they can likely still get Clausen, if desired, at number seven. Here's my top 12 picks, with a little rationale on each.

1) St. Louis - Sam Bradford, QB - Oklahoma
-This seems to be a no-doubter here. Ever since St. Louis released Marc Bulger, it's been a foregone conclusion that Bradford will be the number one pick this year. The only reason I think he won't sign before the draft is if someone decides to blow them out of the water with an offer for the pick, in which case St. Louis could trade down and gather more picks and/or veterans, and still be comfortable taking Clausen or Colt McCoy here.
2) Detroit - Ndamukong Suh, D - Nebraska
-All-world talent, raved about in college, and fits a definite need for Detroit. Combining Suh with the additions of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams will give the Lions a formidable line that will become the strength of their team.
3) Tampa Bay - Gerald McCoy, DL - Oklahoma
-McCoy could go number two, as many teams see McCoy and Suh as so close in talent that they are virtually interchangeable. Whichever DL falls to the Buccaneers here, fans in Tampa will see shades of Warren Sapp anchoring their line for years.
4) Washington - Russell Okung, OL - Oklahoma State
-Continuing the trend of Big XII conference draft picks, Washington will draft a youthful tackle to protect recently acquired Donovan McNabb. A very logical, easy pick.
5) Kansas City - Eric Berry, S - Tennessee
-Berry would bring a playmaker to a rebuilding Kansas City team. The Chiefs have a very mediocre defense and they would be getting a top-tier talent with this pick.
6) Seattle - Bryan Bulaga, OT - Iowa
-Facing the end of the Matt Hasselbeck era, the Seahawks should opt to bring in some protection for whoever his successor may be. Plus, longtime tackle Walter Jones could retire, making a offensive line choice a more pressing need.
7) Cleveland - Dez Bryant, WR - Oklahoma State
-Fitting the T.O./Randy Moss/Brandon Marshall mold in more ways that just on the field ability, Bryant brings explosiveness to Cleveland. I don't see Cleveland committing to another Notre Dame quarterback after Brady Quinn's departure, so the Browns should bring in some help for newly signed Jake Delhomme.
8) Oakland - Trent Williams, OT - Oklahoma
- Rumors are swirling about the Raiders and their quarterback situation, which makes it seem that their 2010 QB could range anywhere from JaMarcus Russell to Ben Roethlisberger. Either way, their offensive line could use shoring up to protect whoever is back there.
9) Buffalo - Anthony Davis, OT - Rutgers
- Continuing the (boring) trend of picking offensive lineman, the Bills should pick an OT here with a ton of upside. I see the Bills looking hard at Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow at round two if available, and I see them passing on Jimmy Clausen here.
10)Jacksonville - CJ Spiller, RB - Clemson
-With no complement to Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars can add a homerun threat to their offense with Spiller.
11) Denver - Rolando McClain, LB - Alabama
- Playing a familiar inside linebacker position in Denver's 3-4 scheme, McClain makes sense here. Accomplished and experienced coming from the Crimson Tide, Denver will have a solid player here ready to go from day one.
12) Miami - Dan Williams, DT - Tennessee
- Having upgraded the offense with the Brandon Marshall acquisition, the Dolphins will find a nose tackle for their 3-4 defense in Williams here.

You may notice that I, probably the biggest Notre Dame fan on campus, don't have Clausen getting drafted within the top twelve. He could go to Buffalo, which makes some sense, or Oakland, which I pray doesn't happen, but I don't see either of those happening. Clausen will probably go somewhere in the teens, but only after a team trades to get into that position. If that doesn't happen, there is an outside shot he goes to Seattle at #14.

Near the top of the second round, you can take it to the bank that Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow will come off of the board before pick 41. Cleveland and Buffalo both have high picks in this round, and McCoy and Tebow are not only talented but intriguing enough to come off the board here.

I hope the Packers get one of two players with pick 23, those being Idaho G Mike Iupati or USC safety Taylor Mays. Both fill definite needs, and I hope one is available that late in the first round.

The Vikings could draft Mays as well, as secondary is the area Minnesota will most likely address.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Master-Phil

I have absolutely no idea how the world golf rankings are calculated. Sure, ESPN and whoever brings it up all the time, but scholars maintain that no one actually knows how it is that PGA golfers get ranked. For years, it has been Tiger Woods and then everyone else. But now, more than ever, that notion is not correct. The #1 ranking was Tiger's to lose. In his absence, he lost it. Phil Mickelson is the best player in the world right now, and his third green jacket at Augusta backs that up.

I tuned into the Masters each of the four days it was televised, and it was clear that Mickelson has an edge right now that Tiger, or anyone else, clearly does not have right now. Woods may have a skill set that is unmatched on the planet, but in a mental game like golf, your head needs to be square on your shoulders in order to succeed. 2009 was a rough year for the Mickelson family, with Phil's wife and mother both receiving treatment for breast cancer. With his wife Amy watching from the 18th green on Sunday, Phil stepped to the 18th tee with a two-stroke lead. After stroking a three-wood down the fairway and then landing the approach within ten feet. He could have three-putted and still walked away champion. He only needed one more stroke, sank the birdie, and earned one more fashionable blazer for his collection.

Much like how Tiger Woods played some of his best golf with Earl standing greenside, Phil had to have his wife on his mind as he stepped up to that final tee shot on Sunday. In a post-round interview, I've never seen Tiger so unsure of himself. He was clearly disappointed in his fourth place finish, but he pretty much played the best golf that he could this weekend. Even up-and-comers on the tour Lee Westwood and Anthony Kim played some of the best rounds of their life. But with Lefty motivated, driven, and playing at the high-level that he is right now, every major right now is Phil Mickelson's to lose.


Wednesday, April 7, 2010

The Bucks! The Bucks!

I just read the details of Bogut's gruesome fall (not Amare's fault, by the way), and I was disheartened to hear that his broken hand, sprained wrist, and dislocated elbow would need at least six weeks to heal before even beginning rehab. What that basically means is that he has set himself up for a dramatic return in game five of the NBA Finals in June, right? You know, with the Bucks facing elimination, down three games to one against the Lakers? This is going to happen!!

In all reality, Bogut's injury means a disappointing exit in the first round, against whoever they may play. They'll get down 2-0, win game three with a great performance by Salmons and Jennings, but be unable to win another game in the series. It sucks, but of all of my predictions, this one is most likely to be true. (Although I certainly wouldn't mind being wrong again!)

However, 2010-11 is bright for basketball in Milwaukee. If Bogut returns to his form from this season, the Bucks will have a solid starting lineup of the 7'1" Aussie, Mbah a Moute, Jennings, Salmons, and Delfino. Throw in an improved Ilyasova, Ridnour, and a draft pick such as Ekpe Udoh from Baylor or Cole Aldrich from Kansas, I see no reason why Milwaukee can't find themselves as a six or seven seed in the playoffs in 2011.

Monday, April 5, 2010

The NCAA Tourney that could have been

It wasn't supposed to end like this. Storybooks don't end like that. Jimmy Chitwood knocks down the shot at the buzzer. Gordon Hayward had not one, but two chances, to recreate Hoosiers. But alas, the fairytale ending wasn't meant to be. And it should have never happened in the first place.

The 2010 Tournament was very solid, and about a few inches from going down in history as one of the greatest games, shots, and month ever. Monday night's game will go down as the game that almost was. Ten years down the road, 2010 will most likely be the year that is remembered by Butler's run to the championship game. But in all honesty, this never would have happened 30 years ago. Butler's run only could have happened at this moment in history.

The one-and-done rule is skewing the balance of power in college basketball. It's not really a surprise that only one number one seed made it to this years Final Four. If you look at some of the young talent in the NBA, that is who Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Brian Zoubek should have been playing against in the NBA. As a matter of fact, there's no way Duke would have been a number one seed if the NBA got ride of the one-and-done.

Let's look at a few of some potential teams. This year's national player of the year, Evan Turner, would not only have all of his current teammates, but also #1 draft pick Greg Oden, Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley Jr., and sniper Daequon Cook. Or how about another #2 seed, Kansas State? Not only would they have the combination of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen but also Michael Beasley and Bill Walker? This year's Syracuse squad would feature first-rounders Jonny Flynn and Donte Greene.

And that's just teams that made the tournament this year. UCLA would feature quite the combination of Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook. Memphis would have the phenomenal backcourt of Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans. And Stanford would still have the twin towers (literally) in Brook and Robin Lopez. Would Butler be able to still make it through a bracket full of world beaters like this? Possible, but highly unlikely.

But the team that would have been dominant is the Texas Longhorns. If Kevin Durant can dominate the NBA the way he has, I'm pretty sure he'd be walking all over the NCAA as an upperclassman. With the likes of Damion James, Dexter Pittman, Avery Bradley and 2008 lottery pick DJ Augustin, Texas very well could have rolled the table and gone undefeated. Sure, a Cinderella story like Butler is nice. But imagine a Texas vs. Ohio State national championship. Ten first round draft picks on the floor, with more than likely a half dozen of them going into the lottery. You like a Cinderella story? I'll take a clash of the titans.

Friday, April 2, 2010

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Fear the Deer

With March Madness wrapping up, the MLB underway and the NFL draft looming, there is still a storyline that is somehow still relevant. And that, ladies and gentleman, are the...Milwaukee Bucks?

With a 41-33 record entering April, the Bucks, Milwaukee has already surpassed last year's win total by seven wins. And with eight games left, the Bucks have guaranteed a .500 or better record and their best playoff positioning in years. What is the difference from years past? Well, it starts with Michael Redd.

With Redd in the lineup, the Bucks were a dismal 6-12. Without, Milwaukee improves to fourteen games over .500 with a record of 35-21 at the end of March. Frankly, I don't think this is a coincidence.

Much of the credit needs to be given to savvy general manager John Hammond. With the acquisition of veteran shooting guard Jerry Stackhouse and the trade (read: heist) of John Salmons, the Bucks now have the four things necessary to be successful leading into the playoffs. With two perimeter scorers, a solid post presence, a healthy mix of veterans and role players, and a hard nosed coach, the Bucks are poised to be a tough out in the playoffs.

The reason that John Salmons is an upgrade over Michael Redd is because Salmons is comfortable in his role. Redd was a complementary player who was thrust into a star's role without a star's talent. Redd is a volume shooter, who needs a lot of shots to score a lot of points, whereas Salmons shoots a higher percentage from the field (44% to Redd's 35%) and from three (38% to 30%). It also doesn't hurt that Salmons "only" makes $6.5 million to Redd's $17 million.

Salmons also has rookie Brandon Jennings to help fill the bucket from the back court. While Jennings started off the season on a tear, he seems to have settled into a role that suits him better. When Jennings acts as more of a playmaker and scores when he's open or hot, it is beneficial to the Bucks.

The story of the season however might be the resurgence or Andrew Bogut (or possibly surgence? I think he would have needed to play like this at some point earlier in his career for it to be a resurgence). Averaging roughly 16 points and ten rebounds a night, Bogut is definitely having a career year and is a candidate for Most Improved Player.

The role players on the Bucks might be the most crucial component of their team. On any given night, Carlos Delfino, Luke Ridnour or Ersan Ilyasova could lead the team in scoring, as all three are averaging just over ten points a game. Throw in Luc Richard Mbah a Moute as the defensive stopper and Jerry Stackhouse and Kurt Thomas as the crafty old veterans, the Bucks have a solid nine-man rotation entering the playoffs. (Note: This includes never playing Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric.)

Scott Skiles is the piece that brings all of these talents together. Skiles, a former point guard who holds the NBA record with 30 assists, is the perfect coach for Brandon Jennings. He is hard nose and preaches defense. He'll pull players if they are struggling, and roll with hot hands and hot lineups that are working. If the Bucks can hold onto the fifth seed, they'll likely face an aging yet formidable Celtics lineup. Get past Boston, and they'll run into Cleveland, who they've shown they can hang with. Whether that transfers over into a seven-game series is still to be seen, but at least they'll have the chance this year, which is better than they can say in years past.