Here are my picks for Division winners, standings, playoff teams, MVP, so on and so forth:
AFC North
1. Ravens (12-4)
2. Steelers (10-6)
3. Bengals (9-7)
4. Browns (4-12)
Like most people, I really like the Ravens this year. Much of it has to do with my man-crush on Ray Rice, but I also really like the upgrade at WR with Boldin and Houshmazilly to complement Flacco's maturation into a very good NFL quarterback. I think 4,000 yards is a lock for Flacco, with this being the year that the identity of the Ravens shifts from defense to offense.
I actually like Dennis Dixon at QB for Pittsburgh, which is why I think they'll be fine through their bye-week. I think Mendenhall will be very solid as well, assuming he can stay healthy as well. I actually think they'll start 3-1, then drop two of Big Ben's first three starts. They'll rally back for 10 wins and be in the playoff hunt down the stretch.
Cincy's defense could become the strength of their team, but I'm not a huge fan of the intangible components that their team has. Unless Carson Palmer turns into a more vocal leader of the offense, they could be undermined by 85 and TO.
The Browns will still suck. I don't like Jerome Harrison or Jake Delhomme.
AFC East
1. Jets (12-4)
2. Patriots (11-5)
3. Dolphins (9-7)
4. Bills (3-13)
Despite their bravado, the Jets have unquestionably the most pure talent in the division. Revis won't miss a beat, and with Antonio Cromartie on the other side, it will be tough for opposing offenses. Sanchez won't need to be great, which is good because I don't think he will be. I think the Jets will need Tomlinson more than they think, but I think he does have enough left in the tank to make the offense dynamic.
The Patriots are solid, as always, and will secure one of the wildcard berths. I really like the Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez additions to an already potent passing attack, but I'm not sure I like the 4-back committee carrying the ball.
Dolphins are ok. Chad Henne makes progress, with help from Brandon Marshall. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are legit, but aren't world beaters.
The Bills are terrible.
AFC South
1. Colts (12-4)
2. Titans (10-6)
3. Houston (9-7)
4. Jacksonville (5-11)
Until you can give me a reason that the Colts won't go 12-4, then they have the AFC South wrapped up.
The Titans and Texans are both formidable in the division, but both I think are a few pieces away from being really good. If VY and CJ2K both have career years, then it could be a very tough offense to contain. Schaub needs to stay healthy, and with question marks in the backfield, Houston just screams 9-7 to me.
Someone has to lose to all these teams, and for me that's the Jaguars.
AFC West
1. Chargers (10-6)
2. Chiefs (8-8)
3. Raiders (8-8)
4. Broncos (4-12)
Don't really like any of these team, which is why I think the top three will be pretty bunched together. I like Jamaal Charles and Jason Campbell to be the breakout players in this division, but I am not huge fans of either of their teams. I'm not as high on Ryan Mathews as everyone else, but the Chargers still have Darren Sproles, Philip Rivers, and Antonio Gates.
I think Tebow will not start a game this season. With nothing to play for the last few weeks, I can see him getting a lot of live looks to give Denver fans hope for next year.
NFC North
1. Packers (13-3)
2. Vikings (9-7)
3. Lions (8-8)
4. Bears (6-10)
Maybe a little personal bias here, but I do really like the Packers this season. I think Ryan Grant will have a great year with many defenses keying in on A-Rodge and the Packers offense.
I think the Lions are legit. They have playmakers all over their offense (Stafford, Jahvid Best, Calvin Williams, Brandon Pettigrew) and their defense is much, much improved as well.
The 2009 Vikings were a perfect storm, with the play of Favre, the emergence of Sidney Rice, and the dominance of the defensive line. With the first two of these in serious question, so are the Vikings playoff chances. Don't get me wrong, they'll be solid. I think they have the talent of a 11-5 team but will fall short at 9-7.
The Bears don't really warrant my attention. Matt Forte will bounce back, but I still don't like Jay Cutler.
NFC East
1. Redskins (9-7)
2. Eagles (8-8)
3. Cowboys (8-8)
4. Giants (7-9)
I think McNabb will have a serious chip on his shoulder, and with a competent coach behind him, the Redskins should emerge from a deep, deep division. He has recievers (Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas) that should make a jump this year, and hopefully Haynesworth will be around to stable that defense.
I love Kevin Kolb this year, so much so that I haven't gone through a fantasy draft without getting him. I think 4,000 yards are a lock. I heard the comparison of him to Aaron Rodgers two years ago, and those comparisons make perfect sense.
I'm not really high on the Cowboys, or at least as high as everyone else. I just don't trust Tony Romo, and I don't think he has the receiving corp to make him great. I don't think Miles Austin is elite, and I think Dez Bryant will be great in the future but he is just a rookie.
Someone has to finish last, and unfortunately that is New York. Eli is the only QB in the division with a ring, but somehow he looks like the worst of the four to me heading into this season. I am high on Ahmad Bradshaw, because I think Brandon Jacobs could be on his way out, which is a HUGE mistake. They are the epitome of thunder and lighting, and could be really effective for the G-Men.
NFC South
1. Saints (12-4)
2. Falcons (10-6)
3. Panthers (7-9)
4. Buccaneers (4-12)
The defending champs are who we think they are, a dynamic offense led by a true gamer in Drew Brees.
The Falcons are definitely good enough to make the playoffs in the NFC, led by a QB who I can see making a jump this year. Matt Ryan has a legit #1 in Roddy White, and is bolstered by a running attack that will garner the respect of d-coordinators league wide. Plus, the ageless Tony Gonzalez is a great security blanket.
I like Jonathan Stewart, but that's really about it in Carolina. I just hope Jimmy Clausen gets some PT come winter.
Josh Freeman gives TB some hope, but in the end, they still suck.
NFC West
1. 49ers (9-7)
2. Cardinals (8-8)
3. Seahawks (6-10)
4. Rams (6-10)
I really like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis to help Alex Smith evolve into a competent NFL quarterback, And most of all, I really like Frank Gore. He's pudgy and just adorable.
I think the Cardinals fall off a little bit this year, and will really miss Kurt Warner. Derek Anderson is not a long term answer, and neither was Matt Leinart for that matter.
Not much that I like about the Seahawks, other than Leon Washington and (hopefully) Golden Tate. I think Matt Hasselbeck is getting too old, and I really hate Pete Carroll.
Rams will show fight, but not ready to make the jump yet. Bradford will be a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year.
Playoff Teams
AFC: Ravens, Steelers (WC), Jets, Patriots (WC), Colts, Chargers
AFC Championship: Ravens over Steelers
NFC: Packers, Vikings (WC) Redskins, Saints, Falcons (WC) 49ers
NFC Championship: Saints over Packers
Super Bowl: Saints over Ravens
I think by not picking the Ravens, Packers, Steelers, or Colts to win, like everyone else seems to be, I think I'm actually going out on a limb. I know how difficult it is to repeat, but I really don't think 2009 was a fluke.
MVP: Drew Brees
Defensive MVP: Darrelle Revis
Rookie of the Year: Jahvid Best
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